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Hello everyone, sorry haven't blogged in a while. Summer is over and the fall brings new ideas that have been stewing. If possible, I hope you can leave a reply to this proposal - yeah or nay. Need some response, and probably ideas to help pull this one off!
The site is called MyVillagePlan.com If you go to this address, nothing will be there as I have only reserved the name. But the important thing here is the concept and operation that i'd like your input on. please reply below, or via facebook or twitter. i'll take all comments and input and aggregate. rules: ideas are free concept: The concept is to create a blog that accepts multiple authors and responses using video, text, and pictures, posting of documents, etc., that outlines a current project going on in your community. For example, in my community there is an affordable housing project that will come on line this fall at the old Advertiser building. The developer thinks that this project will sell well, and he uses conventional data sources to gather demographic info and location info to determine that market forces are pushing this project. MyVillagePlan.com would be a platform where he can express his ideas of the development, and also hear what bloggers, the community, special interest, the press, and anyone else wanting to weigh in can go to speak their mind. The project would have it's rating by the public before it even gets off the ground. Kind of like a Yelp! for architecture and projects in your community. This platform can save people a lot of heartache, and developers a lot of money. Free market research, and also more eyeballs looking at this than they ever wanted. We'll need some project captains to load information onto the site, but it should be open to all community and special interest voices. In our industry language we call them stakeholders... (people who have an interest in this project). MyVillagePlan.com will be the community voice, the developer's voice, the town square, and the public court of whether a development project has wings, or fail miserably... Now here's the lay of the land: inspired by the three C's as presented by Hokulia Developer CEO John DeFries - Community, Culture, and Commerce. A successful development needs all three. Ignore one, crash and burn! MyVillagePlan.com should organize by these three components to look at Community issues surrounding the development, Cultural issues (ancient, contemporary, and sub-cultures, - don't forget the urban culture, oh, and we also live in a green culture), and commerce - this of course should look at local economic impacts as well as how global currency and outer markets will affect us right here in our community. How will the site sustain itself? Hopefully volunteers, people who care, and tons of eyeballs. The site should be free to everyone, so any particular project can go viral faster. I'll be the first project captain for my community to start off so others can see ideas of information to post, but after that it should be a free for all. If the eyeballs come, sponsorships will follow. If we build this, they will come. But i'd really like to know what y'all think! Now as far as technology goes - i think it can be pulled off with Wordpress and their plugins... wordpress guru's, the site would really love your help with this! If the site get's too sophisticated, (i think simplicity is genius-by the way) then we'll have to grow on a shoestring until we get sponsorships. Sponsors should in no way be able to edit the content of the site, however. Ambition: how big can this be? as an architect, i can imagine a lot. This model MUST be scalable. The big hairy audacious goal should be that no developer or something like superferry in any town in the world should go un-vetted by its community. No longer will governments push their people into projects they don't want, and no longer will we waste money on engineers and architects to design things that will ultimately never break ground. (yes this site could put me out of a job, but damn, it will be worth it!) And finally, the projects that we do build will no longer be these ugly monstrosities that make our heads hurt! Let the vetting begin! thanks all for checking out this entry and thanks in advance for the input!
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Dancing on the Dirt Roads in Hawaii6/18/2012 Two bills passed on Friday that allow farmers in Hawaii to sell agricultural products from their farms, and another to build ag buildings (small ones) without a building permit.
Previous to June 15, one could go to a farm, and only find a roadside stand of fruit or vegetables on the side of the road. Now, we have opened the door to full on retail of fresh and processed goods, even restaurants, serving local farm-based foods and other goods. Logo wear also acceptable! This is huge - we can finally create our own Napa-style diversified agriculture businesses right here in Hawaii. Okay, so you don't believe me: here are the bills Uncle Neil just signed: http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/session2012/bills/SB2375_CD1_.htm http://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/session2012/bills/SB2646_CD1_.htm How's this good for Hawaii? Oh, come on! we can make, sell and retail off of farm lands! You can buy goat milk at the goat farm on Maui, or eat at a restaurant right on the farm! huge for agri-tourism, and small farmers, landowners, and people who want to make products from things we grow right here in Hawaii-nei! Huge, huge, huge! Of course it will take some time for farmers and land owners to consider their entrepreneurial nature. But once it catches on, watch for AG lands to jump in value! Big land owners like Mr. Murdoch trying to sell lanai should be very happy.... or maybe he'll start to reconsider trying to sell off all of his lands... Or maybe the banks will reconsider the true appraised values of AG land here in Hawaii. The effects will ripple throughout the Hawaiian economy - just a matter of time, and a chance for all our unemployed to start working the farms again! things are looking up!
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Stories of What I See #14/24/2012 After meditating on an issue about a friend's company and where it is going, this came to me:
Fortune planted a seed up on a high cliff overlooking the sea. It was a wind swept peak with hard compacted dirt and sand. As he dug the hole to plant the seed, he inadvertently cut the seed. 80% of it flew over the cliff to the ocean below. The other piece was planted with high hopes that it would grow into a massive tree - where from its vantage point, one could rule the sea. The tree miraculously grew - by the grace of God alone, but remained small, stunted, windswept, and always struggling. Fortune also planted another seed down in the valley not far from the mouth of the stream that flowed down from the mountains. Beyond the high water mark, the tree grew quickly into a giant. It provided shade to all of the area beneath it, and allowed coverage for animals and other plants to freely lounge in its shad and have a drink. It did not command the sea, But the tree surely became master of its realm.
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A close friend from Japan has a rental in Waikiki, and he was wondering about renovations. Timing, Styles, etc. I'm sure a lot of you may have some investment in Waikiki, so here's my thoughts on it! His questions were, is it a good time to renovate, and what styles work? Everyone has their opinion on this, but i do know that construction workers are at 50% unemployment in Hawaii, and the yen is strong. Most of the projects going on in town are to cater to the Japanese yen. new restaurants, and other japanese focused stores. the local shops who sell to Japanese are going gang-busters. so for now, the Japanese (and Koreans) rule waikiki, and everyone is hoping for the chinese visas and flights to open up. As an investment for a condo, it's probably best to update with lighter colors, and it is true that people love the nostalgia of "waikiki". I think the future trend will probably head more to that nostalgia from the early 20th century waikiki - with some touches of the 50's. Add in Polynesia, and here's why: the Bali style is living strong among designers for residential - mostly because they can get cheap goods from southeast asia, and it looks sort of tropical... but it clashes with the stereotype of "waikiki" that was branded years ago with the kodak hula show, and the like. it's still a powerful brand, and I don't think the state has any plans to influence or change that brand anytime soon, particularly since they are getting massive cuts this year and next over at the Hawaii Tourism Authority, and the Hawaii Visitors Bureau. With the off-kalakaua ave hotels, the experimentation continues, but the best ideas i've seen or heard about are the moves toward a more miami, festive styling with a retro waikiki flavor. this will probably work because everyone wants to be out of this depression (so the trend will move to happier colors and flair), and it still fits the old "waikiki" brand. all the attention will shift to Disney in KoOlina, and when it reveals itself, waikiki will most likely follow suit. I expect designers will focus on "polynesia" after it's debut. Now Hawaii designers are getting a little more "akamai" about using southeast asian labor - so expect to see more decorative and carved "bali" styles, but using Hawaiian or Polynesian motifs. Same goes for fixtures, and accessories. Since we do very little manufacturing in the US, look to Asia, and Mexico for specialty products that are affordable. Also check into Vietnam - good quality at affordable pricing! Well, that's it for design in Waikiki, and I hope it starts to get your mind motors going!
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I visited China in February to participate in a feasibility study for the prospect of feeding Oahu. Problem: high food prices in Hawaii. Too many imports, and the shipping costs are driving prices too high. We anticipate that food prices for imports will go even higher as crude oil pushes to $150 per barrel, and the dollar continues to weaken.
the findings? not good. still too expensive to raise food here in a profitable way - primarily because of food and land costs, and secondly because politically it would be unpopular with the current food distribution industry. Revolutionary change is never easy. An an architect, yours truly has to look at the larger situation of our state and country - which is why I'm always following global events - since they impact Hawaii in one way or another. The butterfly effect is happening in a major way across our globe this month. Printing a few dollars here leads to major upheaval in the Arab world. Since food and oil is traded in dollars - when we print a few more greenbacks, what happens to food prices? Through the roof. Which is why anyone would begin a riot in the streets. I don't care who you are.... if we can't feed our families and our children, then revolution is necessary. Why else would one take to the streets? Why would someone sacrifice their lives against helicopters and men with machine guns? Basic things like food and water... there is nothing left to fight for. But the real puzzle I am stewing over is how to feed us here at home? How can we be self-reliant instead of a welfare state? What? Us, Hawaii, a welfare state? If you don't produce more than you consume, you are in the negative - needing subsidies and handouts... you need welfare. Yup - that's what we are, and the sooner we admit it, the sooner we can do something about it. Food, energy - that's where the inflation will hit us. And when food and gas get too expensive, it will blacken the water like octopus ink. And we could have rioting in our streets. The solution is in our land. My understanding right now is that Hawaii has a whole bunch of unused agricultural lands that are slowly being sold off by the old plantation families. They have no idea what to do with it. Diversified agriculture doesn't seem to work for them because the model is foreign. So they keep the land up for sale - never giving a farmer a long lease hoping that they can sell it. And since there are no long leases, the farmers cannot make a living because there is no price stability in the rent model. With ultra-tight margins - no once can risk setting up a farm. Hence the dilemma. A catch-22. Can a new model or method or solution in agricultural land planning emerge that will solve our agricultural utilization? Is there a way to find a new model for growing and selling food to make use of the land matrix we currently have established? If anyone out there has any ideas, I'm all ears. Here's an interesting idea floating around the state capitol - as i understand it: that the state has the responsibility to feed our school children and our prisoners. Both of which are consuming imported food. Probably not the healthiest food either - although we are trying pretty hard to keep it very nutritional. But what if we grew our own food, and since it is not travelling on a boat for 7 days, maybe it would be fresher and more nutritious? And could it lead to less health problems? Which might help save the State of Hawaii some dollars by consuming local foods, and cutting on the health care expenses. Just maybe? Now what if we could have some of our prisoners, and students actually help work on the farms. Since the labor cost is the issue, maybe we need to go back to the days where the students did work the farms. (the reason why we have spring break and summer vacation to begin with was to have the kids help during the planting and harvest season) - is that going back in time? Maybe it's exactly what we need? Maybe, in our hubris, we thought that we were above farming? And where did thinking like that lead to? whatever is happening to us now is the direct result of our attitudes and decisions over these last 40-50 years.
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These last couple months have been extremely busy for yours truly, but I am compelled to write concerning an urgent matter: the inevitability of what will happen to us. As you know, some of my skills are in seeing things from a broad, long-term view. Architecture and planning are very suitable to this type of mentality.
The Normalcy bias makes us tend to think that nothing really dramatic will change for our lives, but take a look around at your friends and neighbors, and start talking to your contacts overseas and on the mainland - put the facts together. Forget about the propaganda we hear and watch on TV, or the distractions that UH sports and ESPN sports provide us from the looming black wave approaching us. This wave spreads over the entire horizon. Here are the facts: 1) China and Russia have agreed to trade without the US dollar 2) Global economic leaders have been discussing a world currency for a very long time. Instead of the US Dollar being the global reserve currency, it would be a bag of strong currencies. Which may or may not include the dollar. 3) A trend is developing that indicates the dollar to be undesired by foreign businesses. Check this fact with your friends or when you travel overseas. 4) The rest of the world buys gasoline at the pump for around $6 per gallon - here in the US it's more like $3 per gal Yes, this is all true, but it's not going to affect us in any really bad way... our lifestyles won't change very much, and if it does, it will take awhile. Or NOT! Let's think this out to a conclusion. Since World War II, the US Dollar has been the world reserve currency. This means that every other country in the world needs to produce things and sell them to make money. Except for US. All we do is borrow money, buy things, and then print more money to pay back the loan... This is totally against any law of economics that will have any lasting sustainability. The party cannot go on forever. Eventually it will catch up to us. How will it catch up to us? The rest of the world will finally decide that they don't want to use our money as the world's reserve currency. It's already happening.. the party is over. Currently our government is able to use our influence and power to break up the party slowly and carefully, but this will not last forever as the money runs out. Expect things to accelerate and get very, very messy. Here's how: When the rest of the world decides not to trade in dollars, we will most likely not be able to buy imports like oil at the prices we do. Say gas moves up to average the rest of the world at $6 dollars. Oil in that case will have doubled. let's say $150 dollars a barrel. When a society must pay double for its shipping and production, packaging, and other items it does one of two things.. People stop buying. At the same time, workers start crying for higher pay to pay for the inflation in goods and services. Labor rallys and other organizations begin to hold demonstrations. These may or may not turn into riots, but if the people are angry enough - they will. Government may try to stop the madness by putting caps on prices for goods like gas, food, and essentials. Store owners simply cannot sell products at a loss so they stop selling and close their businesses. The demand for items goes even higher, and people get more upset. People who are upset need to eat. With supplies low, prices high, and money supply non-existent, they can do nothing but steal to survive. Imagine the crime wave. Now imagine that there is no money in government because the tax base is eroded and we must release people from prisons to keep the budget down. We can no long afford police to keep up with this. (i.e. Oakland, CA) Now how does one reverse this? one of 2 ways.. add money to the system so people can buy these super expensive goods. But be careful how fast you release money into the system because hyperinflation will kill us. Or let it in very slowly, and let people be very, very angry as they try to save enough money to eat. Forget about consuming all other items - because they are all imported... and so our economy begins to shrink to the point where we are scraping for food instead of buying cars and furniture and hiring architects. The unemployment will be massive. the second way to reverse it is to introduce a new currency that can buy imported goods with a reliable price. it will be extremely hard at first, and people will be poor. Like pre-world war II, poor. Poor like communities that have to rebuild after losing a giant war. Do we look to our seniors for guidance? Only if they were adults in 1940. Which would put them somewhere in their 80's. They are the only ones who can remember how bad it can be. Unless you immigrated here from a war-torn nation like Yugoslavia in the 1990's. Yugoslavia and other nations like them were just like we were now. They experienced the exact same thing on a smaller scale. As a 60-year old American if they know what is going on? Of course not - they grew up in a country on the rise. Where the dollar ruled the world and the party was rolling. My children and I will live in a world where the dollar is declining and our great American culture of living large will end... badly. I'm sorry to say this but it will, and I can only tell you to begin to research getting your wealth out of dollars and into something else that will retain it's value. And for those of you holding notes and debt on others... don't expect to get paid... the banks aren't and they are getting bailed out. Private notes will go down in flames. 2 years ago, i wrote about moving to cash. Now i'm telling you to get out of US Dollars. When will this all occur - how fast will we fall? Bernanke and his wizards are trying very hard to make this landing as smooth as possible, but the one unknown is how angry the people will be. Our governments are preparing for massive civil unrest. We will become a police state at some point in this process. Way Outside the Box The logical conclusion this all leads to is global economic unification. The Fed WILL end, only to be replaced by a global counterpart. I was once told that China could never be capitalist like the US because it is too large. So the state-run capitalism they have is better for them since they have such a large population. For some reason the entire world is now getting an idea that the best way to run a world government is through socialism. Unfortunately we Americans and the other free-nations of the world have the most to lose. We will lose money and freedom as it get's "re-distributed" to the rest of the planet. Don't worry, though - we'll still have ESPN sports, and other simple hypnotizing pleasures, but so long to the housewives of Atlanta.... Viva the new Utopia!, comrade!
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Double Dip Economy8/31/2010 Well, things are getting to the point where everyone that walks into the office is talking about double-dip. People are depressed, and things are not so swell at all. Speaking with my friends at Morgan Stanley, they are the only optimists - saying that it won't go down, but just stay flat in the doldrums. Here are my observations:
1. Federal workers are paid much higher than their state and private counterparts 2. Federal grants are the only hope for building projects at this point it seems. 3. The super-strong yen is brining Japanese and other Asians to Hawaii in droves - keeping our local economy just above alive. 4. This is the beginning of the "government bubble" perhaps - predicted by Gerald Celente 2 years ago. 5. War is coming.... again. 6. Although I am focusing on high-end residential clients, I am also helping non-profits as they apply for massive government funding. Inouye's office is working very hard to help groups in Hawaii get grants and loans from Federal sources. 7. Meanwhile I am beginning to start a dialog with large Chinese interests who want to invest in Hawaii. Small limited investment to them is huge for us. And if things go well, who knows when the floodgates will burst... but they will. As real estate prices continue to drop, our Asian cousins will come once again, to hawaii to do business, and buy up the state at firesale prices. Get ready! Beware that the 2nd dip of the double dip in the early 30's resulted in an 80% loss of wealth... we are not even close to that kind of loss, yet. And our monetary regulators are doing their best to figure this out. My guess is that we could spiral down into a severe depression... and if it is going to happen, the cards will show themselves within the first 2 weeks after Labor Day - which any new yorker knows is the Wall Street end of summer, and back to business. My clients come in and ask - what is there left to invest in? My only answer now is silver, and land. good, top-grade agricultural land. Why? because silver is highly used and does not have reserves. And Agriculture because good agricultural land is very hard to come by - and it will be more in demand as we move toward depression and food shortages. Remember now, top-grade doesn't mean the land is located in a gentlemen's farm community. Top grade is the quality of soil on the property. Good nutrient-rich soil fed by a natural water-shed... wow - that will be an investment!
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Economic Leading Indicator7/20/2010 As some of you may know, I am the author of the newsletter, the Hawaii Leading Indicator. Economizing my energy, this blog will serve as the outlet to which my opinions about the economy shall be published. I won't focus entirely on economy, but also on other trends that impact our decisions to do business and consume.
Why listen to an architect? Here's why. My clients bring news. These clients are planners, developers, and very wealthy individuals who's main focus in life is to keep a pulse on economic indicators. When fear is out of the picture, these clients call me and begin early stage planning of their new ventures. My practice has strict confidentiality rules to protect clients, but I do write about trends. Trends forecast future events. Current trends: Lots of movement on the high end residential side as interest rates are kept low. High-end clients are lining up at the door. Commercial is slow as investors and developers wait for the ARM's that flooded the market 2 & 3 years ago become due. Short term rates will stay low as we go through this process. It will give relief to commercial and ARM holders. The Fed knows this and cannot raise interest rates until this wave passes in late 2011 and early 2012. This wave of low interest rates will continue until most of the ARMS have converted to longer terms or we have at least spread out this tsunami's volume. The world economy cannot take another credit crunch, so interest rates will be kept low. Hyperinflation will only result as a major catastrophe unfolds that the Fed cannot control. The intent is to keep interest rates low for several years. STAGNATION is a good word for this. Currently, my clients still see all of this as uncertain, and will not move on commercial projects unitl the public shows more confidence. War War with Iran is on the horizon. Predictions of this have come about 2 years ago as US defense contractors were filling very large orders of purchasing of ships and planes by Israel. Now mavens who follow the politics of the Israel/Iran conflict are predicting an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites. The US needs to secure Afghanistan in order to sandwich Iran geographically. The chess match is almost played out, and checkmate is being set up. If you look at a map surrounding Iran, which countries are friendly toward the US, or are under US control? War is a lucrative business, and it keeps empires profitable. Particularly when the economy is not healthy. How does all of this affect the world market for luxury items? Including architecture? The world will stratify even further into have's and have not's. The class system will no longer be by national class, but by global class. The US will stratify into the super wealthy and the poor. The American middle class is already losing ground, while China's middle class is exploding. So on a global scale, our middle class is growing, just not in the United States. Different architects cater to different tastes. Those who work for the people design for the people. Those who design for the wealthy, will continue to design for the wealthy, but on a scale of service that is much different than the recent past. The rich will expect services as well tailored as the Ritz Carleton does for hotel services. That's all I have for now on trends!
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what does Hale mean?7/7/2010 I get a lot of questions about my name. Yes it is strange, and rare - particularly for a first name. People often ask what my name means. Here in Hawaii, people often call me " ha le" pronounced ha lay. My mother gave me the name as pronounced "hayle" Here's the strangest thing, though.. and there really are no accidents - Hale in hawaiian means "house". yes, my mother is very wise.
Most dictionaries will say it means health, or hero. But after searching and reading about how the word hale was used in old english, it was used more as a reference to "life force". I don't think it is too much of a stretch to jump from hero to health to life force. They are really all connected. The spirit within the body that connects to life itself. In Greek, hale means breath. The ancients probably needed a definition for the life force within us, and "Hale" seems to come the closest. The Chinese came up with a different term - "chi" or "ki" in Japanese. So when people ask me what my name means, I usually tell them it's old English for "chi". And if they don't know what chi is, then that's when I ask if they've seen star wars. btw, i do practice tai-chi chuan. here's the kicker... what is the relationship between "house" and "life force"? Maybe it all is coming full circle. by the way, "ha" in hawaiian means breath.
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Hale Takazawa's Philosophy of Design7/7/2010 About my work. I'll soon be posting sketches of current schemes on the boards. All of my work is done freehand. I sometimes will use sketchup for the next stage of design, or then go straight to revit. however, all creative development is done free-hand. It is a direct connection to creativity, and it will always be this way. The first moves in anything make all the difference! Like a game of chess.
"you are legendary" say it to yourself, "I am legendary!" Of course we don't like to talk this way of ourselves, but you must believe it, and surround yourself with that belief. Because it really is the truth. It will be sad if you don't take my word for it until you stand at heaven's gate. It's better to be alive and realize this! If you are to be my client, you must believe this of yourself. I expect it - or the inspiration that derives from it will only be as strong as the belief in yourself. Creativity doesn't flow in a medium of self-doubt. the architecture that flows through my hands shows my clients a reflection of their power, strength, radiance, and beauty (which by the way, is a by-product of the first 3). It says of them, " I am an individual, and this work is my story." My work is about formality and rebellion. Complex but controlled. tension and breaking through. rationalization and then moving away from it. it has to be fun, and smart out of the box, and away from mainstream. but still rooted in the mature building traditions of architecture, sculpture, jewelry, craftsmanship, and engineering - just pushing it to the limit at times... when appropriate. alot like american Jazz, and Rock. in fact it is the American way! Sometimes the work has a personality - like Ghandi - peaceful yet explosive. Mature and thoughtful, yet full of action and strength. Volatile, but calm on the exterior. Kind of like Tai-chi or Yoga. If you don't know what the last statement means, try practicing it for a few sessions...
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About this blog6/20/2010 This blog is about the world, wealth, and the future. It is a perspective or window on how I see the world.
As an architect, entrepreneur, and person who is trained to see the big picture: - in time frames longer than 1 or 2 generations, -in terms of civilization building, - in the push for human creativity expressed through our environment, art, and human activities. My time is spent visualizing, and communicating those visions. happy reading! -hale Blog Rules: 1. I will relate my thoughts with the following bias: the world is never in a state of destruction, or in heavy competition, but rather in a state of creation - so much that there is enough for all. My bias is toward the world becoming rich. 2. The second bias in this blog assumes: Wealth in all its forms is good. And that seeking wealth is seeking to expand life itself - a fuller expression. 3. The third bias in this blog: Death, destruction and failure is merely a new beginning. All thoughts and fear of these demons will appear only as re-birth, resurrection, and opportunity. |